The Biggest Behavioural Intervention of our Lifetimes

Sometimes, something happens that seems too big to comprehend. And although we have been able to predict it was highly likely to happen (after all, it has happened before), a global pandemic definitely qualifies. 

When I worked full time as a consultant (ICT, not medical, not management), we would sometimes advise clients that a problem was just "too big to get your arms around."  COVID-19 is the ne plus ultra of that category. So many different facets, so many different ideas, such complexity, such contention. Everyone has an opinion, regardless of how well qualified (or more usually, not) they might be. 

In this context, the paradox has been that, despite being the biggest behavioural intervention we have ever seen, the response to the pandemic has created a challenge for those of us concerned with behaviour - how to bring genuinely useful insights to the mix? Particularly if one doesn't have a background in immunology, virology, epidemiology, or even medicine. The answer is that the behavioural sciences have a definite role to play. Because before vaccination came along, defeating COVID-19 was all about behaviour: there was nothing else in the armoury other than trying to avoid passing on the virus to others, whether that was by hand washing, disinfecting surfaces, social distancing or shielding the vulnerable.

Now, thanks to the extraordinary efforts of the people who developed the vaccines, the emphasis has shifted to rolling out a mass programme on an unparalleled scale. But, despite the efficacy of the medication, behaviour is still crucial - what's the use of a vaccine if people won't take it? So defeating COVID-19 continues to be about the behaviour of each and every one of us. 

It can be useful to try and learn from history, but reading about the last global pandemic, the Spanish 'flu outbreak of 1918 in Laura Spinney's book Pale Rider, it's striking that, although there were many parallels, there were also many differences between then and now (and not just that COVID-19 isn't a 'flu). 

Differences fortunately include the turbo-charged development of the vaccines, from which we are now benefiting. Similarities include the harrowing deaths and incapacitation of so many. Differences also include the scale of the mortality - it's still unclear how many died in the Spanish 'flu, possibly 50 million people. And the biggest unknown of all - whether COVID-19 could just peter out. Or are we waiting for herd immunity to develop (see vaccines, above).  

And given the links between health, demographics and economics, particularly inequality, we need to ensure that we have learned some lessons along the way, and will use the opportunity to build back better. 

Thinking about all this, the complexity and the huge number of issues raised by the pandemic, the image that comes to mind is a word cloud. Which seems appropriate because, even for those of us who have managed to remain physically untouched by COVID-19, it has clearly invaded our psyches and annexed our conscious and unconscious minds.